Comments on: A Game Developer’s Catch-22: Market Timing http://www.edery.org/2010/01/a-game-developers-catch-22-market-timing/ For those interested in the business of making great video games. Entrepreneurial spirit a must. Wed, 08 Feb 2012 08:07:36 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Tex Pine http://www.edery.org/2010/01/a-game-developers-catch-22-market-timing/comment-page-1/#comment-272004 Tex Pine Sun, 03 Jan 2010 22:32:50 +0000 http://www.edery.org/?p=1311#comment-272004 It should also be noted that the livelong desktops (PC Windows and Mac) may at first look like a platform exception to this cycle, but it's quite the opposite although much more complex than closed platforms. Connected desktops have the peculiarity of enabling new "sub-platforms" or platform-like segments within. Like Downloadable Core (Direct2Drive, Steam), Social (Facebook, Orkut), Casual Portals (Big Fish Games, Game House), Web/Flash Portals (Newgrounds, Kongregate), and of course the traditional box retail. And each one of them has its own audiences, characteristics and investment bar. And each one had or is undergoing either the Early Glory, the Inevitable Misery or the final Triumphant Return stages. They can even have recurrent sub-cycles getting back to the Uncertain Beginnings stage, like box retail when new video-cards generations, key DirectX milestones or Windows versions are pulled out. For the desktop in 2010, I would say Uncertain Beginnings are for netbook-oriented games, OnLive and augmented reality games. And the Inevitable Misery will come for Social, because there's too much garbage out there. It should also be noted that the livelong desktops (PC Windows and Mac) may at first look like a platform exception to this cycle, but it’s quite the opposite although much more complex than closed platforms. Connected desktops have the peculiarity of enabling new “sub-platforms” or platform-like segments within.

Like Downloadable Core (Direct2Drive, Steam), Social (Facebook, Orkut), Casual Portals (Big Fish Games, Game House), Web/Flash Portals (Newgrounds, Kongregate), and of course the traditional box retail.

And each one of them has its own audiences, characteristics and investment bar. And each one had or is undergoing either the Early Glory, the Inevitable Misery or the final Triumphant Return stages. They can even have recurrent sub-cycles getting back to the Uncertain Beginnings stage, like box retail when new video-cards generations, key DirectX milestones or Windows versions are pulled out.

For the desktop in 2010, I would say Uncertain Beginnings are for netbook-oriented games, OnLive and augmented reality games. And the Inevitable Misery will come for Social, because there’s too much garbage out there.

]]> By: Jussi Laakkonen http://www.edery.org/2010/01/a-game-developers-catch-22-market-timing/comment-page-1/#comment-271939 Jussi Laakkonen Sat, 02 Jan 2010 18:43:25 +0000 http://www.edery.org/?p=1311#comment-271939 David, very solid industry analysis. So obvious when looking at your graphs, but so hard to avoid the lemmings effect =). This is a great reminder to print out and stick to the wall when you think about where to invest your precious time and money. David, very solid industry analysis. So obvious when looking at your graphs, but so hard to avoid the lemmings effect =). This is a great reminder to print out and stick to the wall when you think about where to invest your precious time and money.

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